Abstract:Social media, on which signals are often correlated, has become a primary source of information.How do people form beliefs when reading correlated signals online? In a field experiment on Weibo, we exposed Chinese college students to redundant negative posts about civil service jobs. Consequently,students developed a 0.16 standard deviation more negative view of these jobs and were 11% less likely to register for civil service exams, compared to the control group. We find the same effect in a supplemental online survey experiment, and the effect is moderated by attention. Our study demonstrates that correlation neglect can affect beliefs and real-life outcomes, includingcareer choices.
Correlation Neglect on Social Media: Effects on Civil Service Applications in China

The Economic Journal
http://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaf047
About the author:Yihong Huang is an Assistant Professor of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. She received her PhD from Harvard University in 2024. Her research focuses on Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics and Political Economy, employing both field and lab experiments. She use insights from behavioral economics theory to understand real-world phenomena such as misperceived social norms, political discourse, media bias, and inefficient information flow.